# Performing Simple Probabilistic Simulations in Microsoft® Excel

## Chapter 5, Printout 1

1. Launch Excel.

2. Enter the variables and simulate random data.

• In cell A1, type "C"

• In cell B1, type "G"

• In cell C1, type "A"

• In cell D1, type "Mi"

• In cell E1, type "Mo"

• In cell F1, type "Ta"

• In cell G1, type "Ti"

• In cell H1, type "To"

• Select "Tools --> Data Analysis."

• In the dialog box that follows, select "Random Number Generation" from the list.

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• Click "OK."

• Fill out the resulting dialog box as follows:

Input Type Label Value
Number of Variables: 1
Number of Random Numbers: 100
Distribution: Normal
Mean = 1003.8
Standard Deviation = 0.502
Random Seed:
Output Range: selected
Output Range: \$A\$2:\$A\$101

Note: You may enter the random seed of your choice, or no random seed at all.

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• Click "OK."

Excel fills cells A2-A101 with randomly generated specific heat values.

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• Using the same process as for C, generate random values for the other variables and store them in Columns B-H. The following table summarizes the necessary changes to the "Random Number Generation" dialog box:

Mean: Standard deviation: Output Range:
G 1121.4 16.8 \$B\$2:\$B\$101
A 1.58 0.0025 \$C\$2:\$C\$101
Mi 0.0234 0.000175 \$D\$2:\$D\$101
Mo 0.0247 0.000185 \$E\$2:\$E\$101
Ta -13.22 0.25 \$F\$2:\$F\$101
Ti -6.08 0.25 \$G\$2:\$G\$101
To 24.72 0.25 \$H\$2:\$H\$101

Excel generates random values for the variables.

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3. Simulate Efficiency.

• In cell I1, type "Efficiency"

• In cell I2, type "=A2/(B2*C2)*(E2*H2-D2*G2-(E2-D2)*F2)"

• Select cells I2-I101.

• Select "Edit --> Fill --> Down."

Excel fills cells I2-I101 with simulated efficiency values.

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4. Display descriptive statistics of Efficiency.

• Select "Tools --> Data Analysis."

• In the dialog box that follows, select "Descriptive Statistics" from the list.

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• Click "OK."

• Fill out the resulting dialog box as follows:

Input Type Label Value
Input Range: \$I\$1:\$I\$101
Columns selected
Labels in First Row checked
Output Range: selected
Output Range: \$K\$1:\$L\$15
Summary statistics checked
Confidence Level for Mean: unchecked
Kth Largest: unchecked
Kth Smallest: unchecked

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• Click "OK."

Excel computes descriptive statistics for Efficiency and displays them in cells K1-L15.

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