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Strategic Plan 2005-2010

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Report Brief

BLS Releases 2000-2010 Employment Projections

PURPOSE

This report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and includes projections for the American workforce covering the time period of 2000 to 2010. The BLS report is useful for planning in higher education, as it provides information on 10-year projections of employment by industry and occupation, labor force, and economic growth.

KEY POINTS FROM THE REPORT

Employment

  • Over the 2000-2010 period, total employment is projected to increase by 15%, slightly less than the 17% growth during the previous decade, 1990-2000.

Industry Employment

  • By 2010, the service-producing sector will add 20.5 million jobs continuing to be the dominant employment sector in the economy. Within the goods-producing sector, construction and durable manufacturing will contribute relatively modest employment gains.
  • Service-producing employment will increase by 19%, compared with only a 3% increase in manufacturing employment.
  • Manufacturing employment will hold 19.1 million jobs, and its share of total jobs will decline from 13% to 11% over the decade.
  • Accounting for a large share of the fastest growing industries are health services, business services, social services, engineering, management, and related services. They will account for one out of every two nonfarm wage and salary jobs added.

Occupational Employment

  • Professional and related occupations are projected to add 7.0 million jobs, and service occupations 5.1 million jobs. Both groups are projected to increase the fastest and will provide more than half the total job growth.
  • Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%.
  • Office automation and advances in manufacturing technology have influenced a slower than average growth in the areas of office and administrative occupations, and production occupations.
  • Eight of the 10 fastest growing occupations are computer-related, commonly refered to as information technology occupations.

Education and Training Categories

  • Employment in all seven education or training categories that generally require a college degree or other post secondary award is projected to grow faster than the average across all occupations. Accounting for 29% of all jobs in 2000, these categories will account for 42% of projected new job growth in the 2000-2010 period.
  • The four categories requiring work-related training are projected to grow more slowly than average, but would still add a substantial number of jobs.

Labor Force

  • The civilian work force will increase slightly, 12% compared with the 11.9% from 1990-2000, and reach a projected 158 million.
  • The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because of changes in both the demographic composition of the population and in the rates of workforce participation across demographic groups.
  • For the first time in 25 years, the youth labor force (ages 16 to 24) is projected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor force. However, the median age of the labor force will continue to rise. Baby-boomers will be between the ages of 46 to 64, in 2010 and continue to account for a substantial share of the labor force.
  • Labor participation rates for women will grow more rapidly than men's. Women's share of the labor force will increase from 47% to 48% during the period of 2000 to 2010.
  • The following is a breakdown of the increasing growth in labor force groups by race and ethnicity during the 2000 to 2010 period: Asian and other (44%), Hispanic (36%), Black (21%), and White (9%).
  • The following is a breakdown of the share of the labor force groups by race and ethnicity during the 2000 to 2010 period: Asian and other will increase from 5% to 6%, Hispanics will increase from 11% to 13%, and white non-Hispanics will decrease from 73% to 69%.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The report was a release of BLS employment projections and as a result did not offer any recommendations for practice.

ADDITIONAL COMMENTS

The report includes a note that the BLS projections were completed prior to the events of September 11, and the long-term impact of those events remains unclear.

REFERENCE

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2001, December). BLS releases 2000-2010 employment projections. Washington, DC: Author.

Submitted by R.M. Johnson, March 2004 This is a report summary and excerpts are quoted directly from the text.

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