From UN

Afghanistan Summary

Natural Resources & Civil War

do resources generate conflict?
- what resources?
does contraband fuel conflict?
- Opium poppy cultivation grew from 1986 to 2000 at average annual growth rate of 23%
- in 2000-2001, rebel (non-Taliban) areas increased production
- post-2001, rebel (Taliban) areas increased production
- contraband funds but does not create conflict (consistent w/ Ross's findings)

Evidence on Drugs

From Global Illicit Drug Trends, 2003. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Ethnicity & Civil War

did ethnic divisions cause conflict?
- initial rebellion against Communist regime in 1978 is ideological, not ethnic
- ethnic divisions emerge but did not create the conflict
- Taliban is predominantly Pashtun but fights other Pashtuns as well
- All ethnic groups are Sunni except Hazara but other intra-Sunni conflict occurs

Ethnicity & Democratization

Pashtun (many ex-Taliban) v. Tajik (ex-Northern Alliance) tensions
Ethnic groups are divided among themselves
- Taliban v. anti-Taliban Pashtun
- only Uzbeks voted ethnically
- Tajik vote very divided

Sep. 2005 Parliamentary Election Results

How Ethnic Are the National Assembly Factions?

Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) Fiasco

transitional governments Joint Election Management Board (JEMB) proposed closed-list proportional representation (PR) in 2004
- 34 provinces with 2 to 33 seats per province (1/3rd more than 10 or more seats)
- presentation to Afghan transitional cabinet botched
SNTV adopted as "least bad" alternative, May 2004
- international advisors raise objections
- 35 of 40 registered parties back PR
- Pashtun leaders then oppose PR
vote becomes divided
- 1st seat won with an average of 11.5% of the vote, last seat with 5.7%
weak party system reinforced by SNTV
- In WJ, 40 militia commanders, 24 linked to criminal gangs, 17 drug traffickers, 19 accused of serious war crimes (Reynolds, 2006)

Weak State and Insecurity