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Answer the question in the space provided (as best you can; use the back page if necessary). Questions 1-4 are worth 10 points each. Questions 5 & 6 are worth 30 points each.


1.    What are two conditions, according to Mingst, under which individuals are likely to affect or impact events?

see p.139-140 of Mingst: 1) political institutions are unstable, young, in crisis or collapsed; 2) institutional constraints are limited; 3) issue or situation is peripheral, unusual, ambiguous [Students may use the sub-elements of #1 as separate conditions; Mingst groups them together but I see them as distinct]

2.    What are two ways that Hermann’s independent leaders differ from participatory leaders?

See p.141-142, especially the chart on p.142


3.    Based on Mingst’s discussion, how well do “belief systems” or “operational codes” explain state’s foreign policy.

See p.143-44: for full credit they should note that the views of Dulles and Kissenger are consistent with the policies the US pursued but that Dulles (and Kissenger) were just one, respectively, of a set of leaders so the role of their beliefs or codes cannot be stated “with certainty”

4.    Give an example of how “mirror images” and an example of how “groupthink” affect decisionmaking.

See the table on p.145

5.    Explain how two of  Lauren, George & Craig’s “lessons of crisis” management were employed or not employed in a crisis.

Discussion of 1878 crisis (Bismark) or the 1914 crisis or the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. The list of ‘lessons’ is here:

6.    Explain how the management of the crisis preceding World War I differed from the management of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, according to Lauren, George & Craig.

Relevant differences include that during WWI statesmen had more time to decide;. In WWI, the tempo of military action was not paused as it was in 1973; in WWI the major powers had more control over their militaries and allies than the US and USSR had over their Middle East clients in 1973; in 1973 political leaders were better able to coordinate military and political action than in 1914; public opinion and lobbying played an even stronger role in the US than p.o. did in Europe in 1914. Basically, they should show the contrast between the poor following of the ‘lessons of crisis management’ in 1914 with the (for the most part) good following of these lessons is 1973.