Sovereign Territorial State Follow-up
Does domestic opposition strengthen or weaken a state's bargaining ability?
- US VP Cheney's visit to Pakistan
- Win-set analysis (Putnam)
How do individuals make decisions and process information?
- cognitive psychology
- subjective expected utility theory as rational standard
- “hot” v. “cold” cognition
- fundamental attribution error
- cognitive dissonance v. consistency
- “convenient beliefs”
- evoked set
- availability heuristic
- perceptions and misperceptions (Jervis)
- incomplete information v. inferential errors
- expectations shaping perceptions
LCG's Lessons of CM
- maintain civilian control
- pause military action
- coordinate diplomatic and military actions
- use military moves to demonstrate resolve clearly
- avoid pre-emption-inducing military moves
- signal interest to negotiate rather than defeat
- June-Aug. 1914 Crisis
- did expectations of war make war more likely?
- did the resolution of past crises make leader more willing to press
- did leaders engage in wishful thinking?
- Cuban Missile Crisis
- did Soviets perceive missile deployments as provocative?
- did Soviets view Berlin as comparable to Cuba?
- how would US allies view US escalation?
- 1973 Arab-Israeli War
- why did Israel fail to pre-empt as it did in 1967?
- why did Soviets threaten intervention?
- why did the US escalate to DEFCON III?