Wednesday, April 11, 2001

2:30 p.m. Bolger Center, Lobby, Main Building

Registration
Refreshments available
Conference activities will occur in Room 200 and in the Lobby, one floor down from 200, in the Main Building.

3:00-3:30 p.m. Bolger Center, Room 200, Main Building

Opening Session

Welcome from Ron Poland, United States Postal Service (USPS)
Ron Steele and Brad Pafford, USPS, Statistical Programs at the United States Postal Service

3:45-5:45 p.m. Room 200

Technical Session I: Small Area Methods for Current and Prospective Applications to U.S. Federal Programs
Chair: Jai Won Choi, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

Measuring and Allocating the Undercoverage in the U.S. Census of Agriculture   abstract/title
Phil Kott (U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistical Service)

Potential Applications of Small Area Techniques in Urban Travel Demand Forecasting   abstract/title
Joe Clements* and Janice Lent (U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics)

Examining the Synthetic Bias of Small Area Population Estimates from a Post Enumeration Survey   abstract/title
Donald Malec (U.S. Census Bureau)

Relevance Weighted Likelihoods for the Exponential Family: An Application to Small Area Estimation   abstract/title
Malay Ghosh* (University of Florida) and James Zidek and Tapabrata Maiti (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

6:00-7:30 p.m. Lobby

Poster Presentations

Several posters will be presented simultaneously in the reception area. Refreshments will be served. A list of presenters, titles, and abstracts is on the web page. Posters

Thursday, April 12, 2001

7:00 a.m. Lobby

Continental Breakfast

7:30-8:00 a.m. Outside Room 200

Registration

8:00-10:00 a.m. Room 200

Technical Session II: Bayesian Methods for Small Area Estimation
Chair: Jerome Reiter, Williams College

A Noninformatipve Bayesian Approach to Small Area Estimation   abstract/title
Glen Meeden (University of Minnesota)

A Bayesian Analysis for the Choice of Domains for Estimating Census Undercount   abstract/title
Daniela Cocchi*, Enrico Fabrizi, and Carlo Trivisano (University of Bologna, Italy)

Combining Information from Multiple Sources for Small Area Estimation   abstract/title
T. Raghunathan (Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan)

A Hierarchical Bayesian Nonignorable Nonresponse Regression Model for Predictive Inference
          of the Mean Body Mass Index of a Finite Population   abstract/title
Balgobin Nandram*, Jai Won Choi, and Myron Katzoff (U.S. National Center for Health Statistics)

10:00-10:15 a.m.

Break

10:15-11:45 a.m. Room 200

Technical Session III: Unit Level Modeling
Chair: Wayne A. Fuller, Iowa State University

A Unified Theory for Design Consistent Efficient Small-Area Estimators Under Unit Level Models   abstract/title
Jiming Jiang* (Case Western Reserve University) and Partha Lahiri (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Small-Area Estimation Based on Misspecified Unit-Level and Aggregated Models
          for Unit-Level Survey Data   abstract/title
Eric Slud (University of Maryland at College Park)

Hierarchical Bayes Calibrated Domain Estimation Via Metropolis-Hastings Step in MCMC
         with Application to Small Areas
Avinash Singh* and Ralph Folsom, Jr. (Research Triangle Institute) abstract/title

12:15-1:15 p.m.

Lunch

1:15-2:45 p.m. Room 200

Technical Session IV: Assessment of Uncertainty and Model Adequacy in Small Area Estimation
Organizer/Chair: John Eltinge

Measuring Uncertainty of Small Area Estimators   abstract/title
J.N.K. Rao, Carleton University

The Mean Square Error of Small Area Predictors Constructed with Estimated Area Variances   abstract/title
Junyuan Wang* and Wayne Fuller, Iowa State University

Evaluating the Fundamentals of Illinois' Small Domain Estimator   abstract/title
Rachel Harter* and Kirk Wolter, National Opinion Research Center (NORC)

2:45-3:00 p.m.

Break

3:00-4:30 p.m. Room 200

Technical Session V: International Applications of Small Area Methods
Chair: Robert Groves, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland

Conditional and Unconditional Analysis of some Small Area Estimators in Complex Sampling abstract/title
Claudia De Vitiis, Loredana Di Consiglio*, Piero Demetrio Falorsi, and Stefano Falorsi (National Statistical Institute, Italy) and Aldo Russo (Third University of Rome, Italy)

The EURAREA Project
Patrick Heady (UK Office of National Statistics) abstract/title

Measuring International Mail Flows from European Countries   abstract/title
Stephen Woodruff* and Mike Strand (United States Postal Service)

4:30 p.m.

Buses will depart from the Bolger Center for the reception.

6:00-8:00 p.m.

Reception at The Gallup Organization.

8:05 p.m.

Buses will leave from the Gallup Organization returning to the Bolger Center.

Friday, April 13, 2001

7:00 a.m. Lobby

Continental Breakfast

8:30-10:00 a.m. Room 200

Technical Session VI: Small Area Estimation for Alcohol and Drug Use
Chair: Stephen Woodruff, USPS

Hierarchical Bayes Estimation of Prevalance of Drug and Alchohol Abuse   abstract/title
Jane Meza* (University of Nebraska Medical Center) and Shijie Chen and Partha Lahiri (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Evaluations of Estimators of Small-Area Proportions of Drug and Alcohol Use   abstract/title
Michael Larsen (The University of Chicago, Department of Statistics)

Estimating Function-Based Gaussian Likelihood in Hierarchical Bayes Modeling
          for Small Area Estimation with Survey Data   abstract/title
Ralph Folsom* and Avinash Singh (Research Triangle Institute)

10:00-10:15 a.m.

Break

10:15-11:45 a.m. Room 200

Technical Session VII: Disease Mapping and Related Small-Area Problems
Organizer: Louise Ryan, Harvard School of Public Health
Chair: Michael Larsen, University of Chicago

Prediction of Incident Cancer Cases by County in the U.S.   abstract/title
Linda Williams Pickle (U.S. National Cancer Institute)

Combining Individual and County Level Information in Small Area Estimation:
          Multilevel Hierarchical Models with Spatial Smoothing   abstract/title
Lance Waller* and Haitao Chu (Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University)
Deborah Rolka (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

Mapping of Cancer Risk with Incomplete Covariates   abstract/title
Jonathan French* and Matthew Wand (Harvard School of Public Health)

11:45-1:00 a.m.

Lunch

1:15-2:45 p.m. Room 200

Technical Session VIII: Small Area Income and Poverty Estimation Program
Chair: David Waddington, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Organizer: William Bell, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Introduction to SAIPE  
Mike Cohen (National Academy of Science, NAS)

Accounting for Uncertainty About Variances and Correlations in Small Area Estimation   abstract/title
William Bell (U.S. Bureau of the Census)

Small Area Poverty and Income Estimation for Counties   abstract/title
Robin Fisher (U.S. Bureau of the Census)

2:45-3:00 p.m.

Coffee Break

3:00-4:30 p.m. Room 200

Panel Discussion: Enhancing Public Understanding of the Quality of Published Small Domain Estimates   abstract/title
Organizer/Moderator: John Eltinge, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Panelists:
John Eltinge (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Gordon Brackstone (Statistics Canada)
Alan Zaslavsky (Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School)
Sandy Brown (U.S. Department of Education)
Allen L. Schirm (Mathematica Policy Research)

5:30 p.m.

Buses depart from the Bolger Center for the Potomac Cruise (Fee paying event)

7:00-10:00 p.m.

Potomac Cruise

Saturday, April 14, 2001

8:30-10:00 a.m. Room 200

Technical Session IX: Hierarchical Models in Small-Area Estimation
Chair: Danny Pfefferman, Hebrew University, Israel

Second Order Asymptotics in Small Area Estimation: Accurate Approximation
          of Uncertainty and Coverage Probabilities   abstract/title
Gauri Sankar Datta (University of Georgia), J.N.K. Rao (Carleton University), and D.D. Smith* (University of Georgia)

Model-Based Small Area Estimates for the Canadian Labour Force Survey   abstract/title
Jack Gambino (Statistics Canada) and Yong You* and J.N.K. Rao (Carleton University)

Evaluating Small Area Shrinkage Estimators   abstract/title
Carl Morris (Harvard University)

10:15-11:15 a.m. Room 200

Technical Session X: Choices Among Sample Design and Estimation Methods in Small Area Work
Chair: Tapabrata Maiti, University of Nebraska -- Lincoln

Notes on the Effect of Model Choice in Estimation for Small Domains   abstract/title
Risto Lehtonen* and Ari Veijanen (Statistics Finland) and Carl-Erik Sarndal (University of Montreal)

Producing Small Area Estimates from National Surveys: Methods for Minimizing
          Use of Indirect Estimators   abstract/title
David Marker (Westat)

11:15 a.m. Room 200

Closing of Conference
Remarks by Steve Woodruff, USPS