“The Process-Outcome Connection
in Foreign Policy Decision Making:
A Quantitative
Mark
Shafer and Scott Crichlow
International Studies Quarterly
Volume
46, Issue 1
March
2002
Table D
Operational Definitions of Information Processing
Variables
1. Poor Information Search:
The group fails to obtain available information necessary for critically
evaluating the policy options considered by the decision-making group. This may
include a failure to contact experts whose knowledge could be particularly
useful. Coded 1 if the group performs a poor information search, 0 otherwise
(George, 1980; Herek et al., 1987; Janis, 1989;
Haney, 1997; Vertzberger,1990).
2. Biased Information
Processing: The group shows a definite tendency to accept new information from
experts, the mass media, and outside critics only when it supports preferred
alternatives. Members generally ignore or refute other information to which
they are exposed. Coded 1 if information is processed in a
biased manner, 0 otherwise (Jervis, 1976; Herek et
al., 1987; Janis, 1989; Hart, 1990; Haney, 1997; Burnstein
and Vinokur, 1977; Burnstein
and Vinokur, 1977; Sanders and Baron 1977; Baron et
al. 1996).
3. Survey of Objectives: The
group discusses its objectives and the nature of its goals and values in a
particular situation before deciding on a course of action. Coded 1 if such a
survey is conducted, 0 otherwise (George, 1980; Herek
et al.,1987; Janis, 1989; Haney, 1997; Vertzberger,1990).
4. Survey of Alternatives: The
group thoroughly considers a variety of alternative policies, including their
risks and their prospects for success, before adopting a course of action.
Coded 1 if such thorough consideration is conducted, 0 otherwise (George, 1980;
Herek et al., 1987; Janis, 1989; Haney, 1997; Burnstein and Vinokur, 1977;
Sanders and Baron 1977; Baron et al. 1996; Vertzberger, 1990).
5. Stereotype of Situation:
The group stereotypes the situation in which it finds itself. Coded 1 if the
group, or a significant section of it, stereotypes the situation, 0 otherwise
(Jervis, 1976; Janis, 1989; Khong, 1992; Hybel, 1993; Thomson, 1994; Vertzberger,1990;
Vertzberger, 1998).
6. Stereotype of Out-group:
The group stereotypes the out-group upon which its behavior is focused. Coded 1
if the group, or a significant section of it, stereotypes the out-group, 0
otherwise (Jervis, 1976; Janis, 1989; Khong, 1992; Hybel, 1993; Thomson, 1994; Vertzberger, 1990; Vertzberger, 1998).
7. Pressures Toward Uniformity: One or more of the following exist that
curtail the free exchange of perspectives on the situation at hand:
self-censorship, an illusion of unanimity, direct pressure on dissenters,
self-appointed mind guards. Coded 1 if such pressures exist, 0 otherwise
(Janis, 1989; Hart, 1990; Schafer and Crichlow, 1996;
Burnstein and Vinokur,
1977; Sanders and Baron 1977; Baron et al. 1996; Vertzberger,1990).
8. Unusual Process Factors: The decision-making process is affected by specific, anomalous factors that do not fit into any of the other process variables.
Baron,
R.S., S.I. Hoppe, C.F. Kao, B. Brunsman, B. Linneweh, and D. Rogers (1996) Social Corroboration and
Opinion Extremity. Journal of
Experimental Social Psychology 32:537-560.
Burnstein, E. and A. Vinokur (1977)
Persuasive Argumentation and Social Comparison as Determinants of Attitude
Polarization. Journal of Experimental
Social Psychology 13:315-332.
George,
A. (1980) Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of
Information and Advice.
Haney, P. J. (1997) Organizing
for Foreign Policy Crises: Presidents, Advisers, and the Management of Decision
Making.
Hart, P. ‘t. (1990) Groupthink
in Government: A Study of Small Groups and Policy Failure.
Herek, G.
M.,
Hybel, A.
R. (1993) Power Over
Rationality: The Bush Administration and the Gulf Crisis.
Janis,
Jervis,
R. (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics.
Khong, Y.
F. (1992) Analogies at War:
Sanders,
G.S. and R.S. Baron (1977) Is Social Comparison Irrelevant for Producing Choice
Shifts? Journal of Experimental Social
Psychology 13:303-314.
Schafer, M. and S. Crichlow
(1996) Antecedents of Groupthink: A Quantitative Study. Journal of
Conflict Resolution 40:415-435.
Thomson, J. C. (1994) “How Could
Vertzberger, Y. (1990) The World in Their Minds:Information Processing,
Cognition, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking.
Stanford:
Vertzberger, Y. (1998) Risk
Taking and Decisionmaking: Foreign Military Intervention Decisions. Stanford:
Table A
Cases
Included in the Analysis
Table B
Operational
Definitions of Situational Context Variables
Table C
Operational
Definitions of Group Structural Variables