“The Process-Outcome
Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making:
A Quantitative
Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow
International
Studies Quarterly
Volume 46, Issue 1
March 2002
Abstract
This
article investigates whether certain factors pertaining to the process of foreign policy decision
making have a measurable, qualitative effect on foreign policy outcomes. The research is grounded in
the groupthink literature but incorporates different dimensions of similar
underlying notions from other international relations areas as well. Three
different types of process factors are investigated: situational factors, such
as stress and time constraints; factors associated with the structure of the
group; and information processing factors. We test the influence of these
factors on two types of outcomes -- a decision’s effect on national interests
and its effect on the level of international conflict. We investigate this link
in 31 cases of decision from 1975 through 1993. Scores for the outcome
variables are based on survey responses from 21 foreign policy experts. For the
process variables, we develop sets of operational definitions and then code
each case based on extensive reading of case-study materials. OLS regression
models are used to assess the hypotheses. We find that situation variables
matter very little in terms of affecting outcomes and quality of information
processing. On the other hand, both group structural factors and information
processing are significantly related to outcomes in terms of national interests
and level of international conflict.
Table A
Cases
Included in the Analysis
Table B
Operational
Definitions of Situational Context Variables
Table C
Operational
Definitions of Group Structural Variables
Table D
Operational Definitions of Information
Processing Variables