Table 1. Linkage
in German-Russian and German-Soviet Relations
The following table summarizes
the various cases of economic linkage in German-Russian and German-Soviet
relations which were examined in this study. The table first lists
the year(s) in which each German linkage attempt took place. It next
classifies each attempt, using the four linkage types developed in the
study. Linkage can be positive (economic incentives) or negative
(economic sanctions). It can also be specific (linked to a
single political objective) or general (designed to affect the entire
bilateral relationship). The instruments used in each attempt are
also listed. In the third column, the goals which Germany attempted
to achieve in each case are summarized. Finally, the cases are classified
as to their overall success or failure and some details of the results
of the cases are given.
|
Year(s)
|
Linkage Type
|
German Goal(s)
|
Results
|
|
ca.
1850-1885
|
Positive General
Loans in Crimean and Turkish wars
***
Bonds for Russian Railroads
|
Russian Support of German Unification
***
Alliance with Russia
(Three Emperors' Treaty)
|
Successful
Both goals achieved
|
|
1885-1894
|
Negative general
Russian bonds barred from
German market ("Lombardverbot")
***
Tariff War
|
Preserve Russian alliance
***
Protect German settlers in Poland and the Baltics
|
Unsuccessful
Russia aligns with France
***
Russification of German minority proceeds
|
|
1905-1906
|
Negative Specific
Loan embargo at time of
1905 crisis in Russia
|
Russian support versus France at the Algeciras Conference
|
Unsuccessful
Russia supports France,
after France offers large loan
|
|
ca.
1921-1933
|
Positive General
1921 Trade Accord
***
German renunciation of payment for property seized
in 1917
***
1925 economic treaty
***
Creation of world's first government-backed export
insurance for German-Russian trade (1926)
***
German credits despite huge debt to West
|
Russian support versus the "Versailles Order" and
its supporters
(i.e., Poland and the West)
|
Successful
Rappallo Agreement (1922)
***
Military cooperation (1922)
***
Military/Political cooperation continues to the end
of the Weimar Period
|
|
1939-1941
|
Positive Specific
Economic agreement August 19, 1939
|
Hitler-Stalin Pact
(August 23, 1939)
|
Successful
Economic cooperation is
one reason for the pact
|
|
1945-1955
|
Negative General
Economic Embargo
***
Refusal to enter into any economic talks
|
Reunification and other secondary goals
|
Unsuccessful
|
|
1955
|
Positive Specific
Promise of trade and credits at 1955 Adenauer-Khruschev
Summit
|
Release of German POWs
***
Soviet acceptance of German "reservations" on diplomatic
ties (Germany states it does not recognize GDR or postwar borders of Germany)
|
Successful
Largest Soviet concessions on "German Question" for
years
|
|
1957-1958
|
Positive Specific
1958 Trade Agreement
***
Trade more than doubles in 3 years
|
Return of German civilians left in USSR after
WWII
***
German right to speak for Berlin
|
Successful
ca. 100,000 civilians are repatriated
***
Treaty valid for "DM area" so it applies to W. Berlin,
thus accepting W. German role in city
|
|
1960
|
Positive Specific
Renewal of Trade Agreement, 12/60
|
Soviet de facto acceptance of German right
to speak for Berlin
|
Successful
Dramatic German walkout from treaty signing helps
force USSR to allow repeat of "DM area" clause during Berlin Crisis
|
|
1962-1963
|
Negative General
Embargo of pipe for oil/gas pipelines
|
No clear objective re: USSR
***
Largely to placate USA
|
Unsuccessful
Hurts German-Soviet ties for rest of decade
|
|
1963
|
Negative Specific
Wheat embargo
|
Dismantling of Berlin Wall
|
Unsuccessful
Other suppliers stepped in
***
Helps persuade Germans to turn to positive sanctions
|
|
1964-1968
|
Positive Specific
Minor incentives in trade and credit
(e.g., export credit guarantees allowed, 1965)
|
De jure inclusion of Berlin in German-Soviet
agreements
***
Progress on unification
|
Unsuccessful
Other Western countries offer more generous deals
with fewer political preconditions
***
USSR lets trade deal with Germany lapse
|
|
1969-1974
|
Positive General
First gas pipeline deal, backed by German government
(2/70)
***
Numerous other tariff and credit concessions
***
1972 Economic Treaty
***
1973 Technical Cooperation Treaty
|
General Progress on relations:
"improved atmosphere"
***
Soviet acceptance that FRG still seeks unification
***
Improved ties to GDR
***
Improved access to Berlin
|
Successful
Moscow Treaty calls German border "inviolable," not
"unchangeable" (8/70)
***
USSR accepts "letter on German unity" from Germany
***
USSR forces GDR to improve ties to FRG
***
Berlin Four Power treaty
***
Indirect result:
better image for FRG in the East
|
|
1972
|
Positive Specific
1972 Economic Treaty
|
De jure inclusion of Berlin in area of applicability
of Treaty
|
Successful
USSR agrees to explicitly mention W. Berlin
in a treaty with Germany for the first time (and also in 1973 technical
cooperation treaty)
***
Continues to resist this for non-economic treaties
|
|
1974-1982
|
Positive General
Continues under Chancellor Schmidt
***
1978 25-year cooperative agreement to build interdependence
***
Similar goal for many gas pipeline deals
***
Generous credits
|
General progress of relations
***
"Improved Atmosphere"
***
Keeping Germany out of new US-Soviet hostility
|
Unsuccessful
Cold War revives after 1979, although largely due
to non-German factors
|
|
1988-1990
|
Positive General
Soviet bond sales in Germany from 1987
***
Renewal of 1978 treaty (1/88)
***
3 billion DM loan (first large loan by a W. state)
(10/88)
***
Joint Ventures
***
Food aid (1/90)
|
General progress of relations
***
gradually closer link to specific German goals
***
"Walk on Rhine" talk between Kohl and Gorbachev (7/89)implies
link between economic aid and German unification
|
Successful
German-Soviet ties improve dramatically, leading
to "Gorbymania" summit in Bonn (7/89)
***
FRG becomes more important to USSR than GDR
|
|
1990
|
Positive Specific
Deal between Kohl and Gorbachev includes support,
housing for Soviet troops in GDR (7/90)
***
Upholding GDR economic links with USSR
***
Five billion DM credit set up in secret Moscow visit
by top Kohl aide (total value reaches ca. 50 billion DM)
|
Soviet consent to Germany Unity
***
Germany can stay in NATO
***
Soviet troops out of GDR within four years
***
USSR agress to drop Four-Power rights
|
Successful
USSR agrees in principle to all German demands
|
|
1990
|
Positive Specific
Kohl offers extra 10 billion DM in aid due to direct
pressure from Gorbachev
|
Final Soviet agreement to actually sign 2+4 Treaty
|
Successful
Treaties signed 9/12/90
***
Germany reunified 10/3/90
|
|
1991
|
Positive Specific
German government sets up fund for WWII victims
***
agrees to export credit terms which violate OECD
rules in generosity
***
new food aid
|
Ratification of treaties related to German unity
by Supreme Soviet
|
Successful
Treaties ratified 3-4/91
***
German willingness to give more aid falls sharply
after the votes
|
|
1992
|
Positive Specific
Yeltsin-Kohl Summit (12-92)
***
550 million DM grant
***
Agreement to give 10 year grace period for billions
in Soviet debt in trade with ex-GDR
|
Faster Russian troop pullout from ex-GDR (before
next German elections)
***
Russian agreement to drop demand for compensation
for military bases in ex-GDR (could have delayed pullout)
|
Successful
Four month acceleration in troop withdrawal (to 8/94)
***
Demand for military base compensation dropped
|