A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR PREDICTING MIDLATITUDE TOTAL COLUMN OZONE FROM OPERATIONAL FORECAST TEMPERATURE FIELDS


J. L. Stanford, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011 USA

J. R. Ziemke, National Research Fellow, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 916, Greenbelt, MD 20770 USA


J. Geophys. Res., 101, 28,769-28,774 (1996)


Abstract

Accurate forecasts of total column ozone (OMEGA) are important because, among other reasons, forecasts of clear-air biologically-important solar ultraviolet (UVB) reaching the earth's surface are exponentially sensitive to OMEGA. We present a simple method for predicting OMEGA using forecast lower stratospheric temperatures and a precalculated look-up table based on ozone climatology from several years of satellite observations. Compared with observations, the simple method gives one-day forecast OMEGA errors of 1-2% (2-3%) in Northern (Southern) Hemisphere summers, comparable with current multivariate UVB forecast models being used by national weather services in several countries. The advantage of the prediction method described here is its simplicity: a convenient look-up table based upon ozone climatology is used, without the need for recalculation in each forecast. The method may prove useful for surface UVB forecasts, especially in the biologically important summer seasons of both hemispheres.